2012 Season:10-6 (4-2)
2013 Preview:11-5 (4-2)
QUARTERBACK: 
QB Andy Dalton has been decent in his first 2 years as a pro QB, especially for a 2nd rounder being asked to learn on the fly as a rookie and even more so while playing in the tough AFC North. He has led them to a 19-13 record, which despite a 5-7 record in the division includes back-to-back playoff appearances. But each postseason appearance has gone quite poorly for Dalton and the Bengals in general – they’ve lost both games by a combined score of 23-50 while Dalton logged a combined 57% comp %, 5.3 YPA, 0-4 TD-INT ratio, and a 48.6 QB rating.
While Dalton improved in his 2nd year in the league, he needs to take another step forward this season if Cincinnati wants to go any further in the playoffs. His comp % is just average (62%, 15th), his YPA is below average (7.9, 20th), and he throws too many INTS (16, 8th highest). He did throw 27 TDs, which ranked 7th.
Dalton needs to improve in 2 key areas, the first of which is his deep ball accuracy. Despite ranking 9th in deep ball targets, his low 33% accuracy (factoring drops) resulted in a 19th ranking in both completions and yards. The other area is dealing with pressure, where he was dreadful. Dalton took the 3rd most sacks in the league in 2012, but the OL is not exactly to blame – Dalton was under pressure just 26% of the time, ranking 4th least out of all 38 QBs. How can he be under pressure less frequently than 34 other QBs, yet rank 3rd in sacks? Because his sack rate was 29%, ranking 2nd – meaning whenever he was under pressure he ended up taking a sack almost a third of the time. Contrast this with other QBs like Eli Manning (11%), Drew Brees (13%), and Matt Ryan (15%). And not only does he need to improve in recognizing pressure, he needs to improve in handling pressure as well, for he ranked 4th worst in comp % when under pressure completing just 39% of his passes. For reference Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder, Nick Foles, Kevin Kolb, and Blaine Gabbert all ranked higher.
Consistency is also an issue with Dalton – he had 6 games where he posted fairly positive grades while 5 were quite negative. Compare this with a few other QBs that graded near Dalton – Luck (8,5), Cutler (7,4), and Bradford (6,3). He has notably struggled against better defenses as well.
As a side note, Cincinnati has swapped out backup QBs letting the 30 year old Gradkowski walk in FA. They are currently holding an offseason battle between Josh Johnson and John Skelton for the reserve role in 2013. While this may seem inconsequential, it’s almost important to have a decent reserve in the event of an injury. Johnson has experience with Cincinnati’s OC and the system he uses, so he has the edge going into TC.
Dalton graded average to above average in most metrics, which would’ve been good for a 4 star grade, but his poor grades on the deep ball and handling with pressure knock him back to a 3.
RUNNING BACKS: The Bengals have had issues at RB since Dalton arrived in 2011, mainly because their run blocking is well below average, but also because the quality or RBs has been as well. Benjarvus Green-Ellis’ 3.9 YPA ranked 34th and his 2.1 YCo per attempt was worse ranking 44th. Incidentally, these numbers are identical to what Benson posted in 2011. And it’s not like BJGE wasn’t given enough attempts – he ranked 8th out of all 59 RBs.
BJGE was actually worse than those previous numbers indicate. He doesn’t have breakaway speed, running just a 4.6 back in 2008. He also doesn’t have much in the way of elusiveness, ranking 26th in missed tackles. This wouldn’t be an issue if he ran with power, but the aforementioned 44th ranking in YCo per attempt speaks otherwise. He was also useless in the passing game, getting targeted just 26 times (34th) while his 4.7 YPR ranked 58th and his 4.1 YAC per catch ranked dead last at 59th. He also ranked dead last in yards per pass route. On top of all that he graded 33rd in pass blocking efficiency.
Cincinnati attempted to remedy this via the 2013 Draft, selecting Giovani Bernard out of UNC in the 2nd round. Bernard is exactly what the Bengals have been searching for the last few years. While he doesn’t have elite speed (4.5), he has great elusiveness and quickness ranking among the top at the combine. He is also a great threat as a receiver out of the backfield, meaning he could take over immediately as the 3rd down back if his pass protection is up to snuff. Gio has the potential to be a 3 down back and as well as threat out of the backfield, something Cincinnati has sorely lacked for a while.
The RBs rounding out the roster may look quite different from 2012. Brian Leonard served as the team’s #2 and 3rd down back. Bernard Scott was the team’s #2 heading into 2012 but he was placed on IR after week 5 with a knee injury. Leonard is gone through FA, but Scott returns along with 2012 #4 Cedric Peerman. Scott runs a 4.44 while Peerman bested him at 4.34. Both will be battling for the final 2 roster spots with 2012 6th rounder Dan Herron and 2013 6th rounder Rex Burkhead. Scott and Peerman bring speed and elusiveness in the open field while Herron and Burkhead bring more power and can play on ST.
Cincinnati rarely uses a FB, opting to put one on the field for about 1/5 of the snaps – Pressley ranked 24th in snaps out of all FBs. He did not run the ball once and was targeted just 3 times in the passing game, so he was used almost exclusively as a blocker. He was not very effective, ranking 20th as a blocker, which helps explain why he was on the field so little.
Green-Ellis is below average but Gio elevates this grade back to a 3 star. If the 2nd rounder pans out and develops quickly, he could provide some much needed punch via the ground game that would balance the offensive attack. Cincinnati also has decent depth here.
RECEIVERS: No conversation about Bengals WRs can start without talking about All-Pro AJ Green. Green ranked top 5 in targets, receptions, and TDs and ranked top 10 in yards and YAC. He is also one of the preeminent deep threats in the game, ranking 5th in targets, 6th in receptions, 5th in yards, and 6th in TDs despite a QB who struggles throwing the deep ball. One area where Green needs to improve is ball security – his 10 drops tied for 11th most. After factoring in his high targets, he still ranks just average in drop rate which is not good enough for a top 5 WR. He also fumbled twice in 2012 which tied for 4th most.
Another problem spot for Cincinnati has been finding a competent #2 across from Green. They tried 5 different options there in 2012, the first of which was Armon Binns. Binns, an UDFA in 2011, had good measurables (6-3, 4.5) and was a local product from Cincinnati who started the first 6 weeks. He had a decent start to the season, catching 12 of the 17 passes thrown his way and posting 60+ yards in 2 of the 3 games. However he quickly fell off after that and was released in December.
2012 rookies Mohamed Sanu (3rd) and Marvin Jones (5th) split most of the remaining starts due to injury. Jones was progressing quicker, but injured his knee when Binns was released so Sanu got first crack at being a starter. The 6-2 Sanu used his size and route running to be a very successful WR at Rutgers. He does not have deep threat speed (4.67), and it showed in his targets – just 4% of his targets went for 20+ yards. However he is a great option out of the slot, where he lined up 64% of the time and his 1.75 yards per route would’ve ranked 15th if he had enough qualifying snaps. He is also a great redzone threat, using his tall frame and sure hands to haul in 4 TDs in his 3 starts. Because of his speed, he will never be a deep threat but could develop into a solid possession WR who shifts into the slot when the Bengals want to spread the field.
Jones took over as the starter after Sanu broke his foot in week 12. He is quite the opposite of Sanu– he ran a 4.46 last spring and served as a deep threat with 19% of his targets going for 20+ yards. He can open up a defense by getting over the top, the only worry is whether he’s polished enough and can run a full route tree to be the #2. He had some decent performances down the stretch – he logged 3+ catches and 40+ yards in 3 of his last 4.
Both will likely split time as the #2 in 2013 as Cincinnati didn’t bring anyone in to compete, instead choosing to let their current crop develop. Each showed flashes of potential in 2012 and both dealt with injuries. One player who figures to have a reduced role is slot WR Andrew Hawkins. Hawkins was incredibly effective through the first 5 weeks, posting positive grades in 4 while racking up 294 yards and 2 TDs. He also posted a YAC per catch of 10+ in 4 of those including 20+ in 2. He was electric in the open field, turning every catch into a punt return with his elite agility and 4.34 speed. However, once teams figured out the 5-7 Hawkins was too short to run a full route tree, they started sitting on the short slants and outs he ran and his effectiveness screeched to a halt – he posted 0 positive grades to 2 negatives and cleared 40 yards just twice over the remainder of the season. He also never reached 10+ in YAC per catch again, posting sub 5.0 in 6 games. The 6-2 Sanu figures to take some of his snaps and he could wind up relegated to the #4 option.
Rounding out the roster are Brandon Tate and Ryan Whalen, both of whom started 1 game in 2012. Tate was quite ineffective as a WR but his 4.44 speed is useful on KRs. Whalen was decent in limited snaps and will battle 2013 6th rounder Cobi Hamilton from Arkansas for the final roster spot.
One place Cincinnati is very deep at is TE. 2010 1st rounder Jermaine Gresham has top 5 ability but he struggles both mentally and with consistency. He ranked top 10 in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs. He also ranked #1 in YAC, top 5 in YAC per catch, and 2nd in missed tackles so he is quite dangerous after the catch. However, his 8 drops ranked 6th most and he ranked in the bottom third in drop rate. He was not used very often out of the slot, his 29% ranking 27th out of 30 TEs, meaning he operated mainly from the traditional TE spot. He was used mainly on short-to-intermediate routes with only 5.4% of his targets going over 20 yards. Gresham struggles in pass protection, ranking bottom 15 as a pass blocker and bottom 5 blocking the run.
Cincinnati used its 1st round pick on TE Tyler Eifert out of Notre Dame. Eifert is 6-6 and ran a 4.68 this spring and is an excellent pass catching TE. He has incredible hands and lined up both as a TE and WR at ND. His blocking needs work but Cincinnati should figure to run more 2 TE sets this year, especially with the lack of a #2 WR.
Orson Charles was the #2 in 2012 but saw limited snaps (about one fourth of a full-time starter). He was used mainly as an inline blocker, logging just 9 targets on his 304 snaps. He is a pretty decent pass blocker but struggles in the run game. Cincinnati signed Alex Smith, the Browns #3, for his run blocking – he would’ve graded 12th in the league if he played enough snaps. Cincinnati is currently working Charles out of an H-Back role in the backfield, a hint that they could be debating keeping all 4 TEs and going without a true FB.
Green is an All-Pro, but the rest of the WRs are average at best. Sanu and Jones are 2nd year guys that both flashed potential, while Hawkins is a one-trick pony out of the slot. He should be more effective as the #4 WR and 4th or 5th read as opposed to the 2nd or 3rd as he was in 2012. The Bengals would get a 3 star grade at WR, but their TEs could turn out to be the best combination in the league. Cincinnati should be improved in the passing game in 2013.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Cincinnati has one of the top tackle duos in the league. LT Andrew Whitworth was the league’s top rated pass blocker, allowing just 5 sacks and 16 total pressures (1st in the league). While Whitworth has graded in the top 2 pass blockers for the last 3 years, he hasn’t been a good run blocker since 2010 when he graded 5th – since then he was 60th in 2011 and 50th last year. He did battle injuries in 2012, but that doesn't explain 2011.
RT Andre Smith sat on FA for a while before ultimately resigning with the Bengals. He was a top 5 run blocker in 2012 and top 20 as a pass blocker, all while committing just 4 penalties – the only reason he sat as a FA likely has to do with self-motivation/weight issues. When Smith is trying he is one of the top RTs in the game (he was the 3rd best run blocking RT and 5th best pass blocker), but he tends to take plays off sometimes.
Cincinnati’s other 1st rounder from 2012 was RG Kevin Zeitler. Zeitler was asked to start from day one and did not disappoint – he posted 8 positive grades to just 1 negative in a rookie campaign that saw him rank 8th as a pass blocker (7th in pressures), and 32nd as a run blocker. He was actually the 5th best pass blocking RG in the league, so the future is very bright for the 2nd year pro.
Across the center from Zeitler is a bit of a problem spot. The Bengals signed Travelle Wharton last offseason to start at LG, and while he was a pretty terrible pass blocker in Carolina he was a top 10 run blocker. However, he tore his knee up in the preseason and missed the entire year. He is only 32 and in just the 2nd year of a 3 year deal, so he could still get his job back. However his replacement last year was pretty effective so he will have to fight for it this summer. Clint Boling, a 4th rounder in 2011 from Georgia, was top 20 as a pass blocker and top 40 as a run blocker all without committing a single penalty. This all combined to rank him as the 11th best LG in the league last year, so Wharton certainly has his work cut out for him this summer.
Center was a total disaster for the Bengals in 2012. Incumbent starter Kyle Cook injured his foot in the preseason and missed most of the year. Cincinnati signed Jeff Faine, former 1st rounder from 2003, to fill the void but he was absolutely abysmal as a run blocker (35th out of 36). He started splitting snaps with 2012 UDFA Trevor Robinson by week 7, was replaced by week 9, and was released by early December. Robinson wasn’t much better however, as he was just an average run blocker but poor in pass protection grading 29th. He did have a string of 3 positive performances from weeks 11-14, but after a poor one against Philly in week 15 he was replaced by Cook. Cook was not healthy but deemed better than the two guys he was replacing – he didn’t excel in anything but was sort of a mesh between the two (better than Robinson in pass protection and better than Faine blocking the run). He should be better in 2013 now that he’s fully healthy.
Depth is definitely not an issue for Cincinnati. Both backup tackles from 2012 (Collins and Roland) return, as does backup center Robinson. Wharton likely won’t be kept as a backup if he doesn’t win the starting spot, but Boling would be a tremendous backup at guard. They also drafted 3 project lineman late in the Draft. T Tanner Hawkinson from Kansas was the first to go in the 5th round, while the gigantic Reid Fragel (6-8 ) from Ohio State came off the board in the 7th along with C TJ Johnson from South Carolina.
Cincinnati has great talent at tackle, one of the best duos in the league, and two pretty good, young guards as well. Assuming Zeitler and Boling can progress – each is in their 2nd year as a full-time starter – they could have one of the top units in the league outside of center. This was already one of the best pass blocking lines in the league in 2012 (2nd), but they really struggled in the run game. The starting center job is up to a camp battle with Cook likely a roster casualty if either Robinson or Johnson beat him out.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Cincinnati arguably has the best DL in all of football. What isn’t arguable is DT Geno Atkins’ title as the best DT in the game. The former 4th rounder from Georgia graded 1st both against the run and as a pass rusher, and led all DTs in pressures by 20 with 78. Domata Peko was the 2-gap to Atkins’ 1 gap, and it showed in his lack of stats particularly against the run. He graded 78th out of 85 against the run because he mainly served as a block eater as a 2-gap, freeing up lanes for others to make plays. He did the same thing in the passing game – he is the alley-oop man to Atkins’ slam dunk. These two form one of the top 5 DT tandems in the league.
In reserve the Bengals are a bit thinner this year as they lost run stuffer Pat Sims to Oakland. Sims missed the first half of the season with ankle injuries but was top 30 against the run when he was healthy. Also in reserve is 2012 2nd rounder Devon Still from Penn State and 3rd rounder Brandon Thompson from Clemson. Still is more of a 1-gap pass rusher while Thompson figures to be Pat Sims' replacement.
At RE is former 3rd rounder Michael Johnson, a 6-7 athletic freak who ran a 4.7 in 2009. He was a top 5 run stuffing DE but struggled a bit as a pass rusher, ranking 14th in pressures but just 25th in efficiency based on snap counts. The LE spot was split by two with the 29 year old Robert Geathers starting games and playing early downs and 2010 2nd rounder Carlos Dunlap rotating in on passing downs. Dunlap is just as much of a physical specimen as Johnson, standing 6-6 and running a 4.7 as well. He was also the team’s best DE based on production, grading top 15 against the run and as a pass rusher. One little known fact about Cincinnati’s top 2 DEs – both Johnson and Dunlap stand up and play coverage about 1-2 times per game and both graded as the top 4-3 DEs in coverage thanks to their athleticism. Geathers was not very effective in either phase of the game, grading top 50 against the rush and bottom 5 as a pass rusher. However he is a big lockerroom presence and a motivational leader, which was likely the sole reason he was resigned to a 3 year deal this spring despite struggling on the field.
Geathers may not have played as much had Jamaal Anderson stayed healthy. He was a top 5 run stuffer in 2010 with ATL but really struggled in 2011 with IND before Cincinnati signed him last spring. However he suffered a season-ending quad injury after just 2 weeks of mediocre play. He was recently cut as a cap casualty on a deep line. However Anderson’s injury opened the door for Wallace Gilberry, who had been signed after Tampa waived him before the season. Gilberry had been a productive pass rusher as a part-time 3-4 DE in KC, and the 28 year old showed he still has it – he ranked top 25 against the run and top 30 as a pass rusher with 7 sacks.
Cincinnati returns all but Sims and Anderson for 2013 including their top 6 DL. They also added DE Margus Hunt from SMU in the 2nd round. Hunt did not play football until college in 2007 but was a world-class track athlete in Estonia and was the physical freak of this year’s combine – the 6-8 280 pounder put up a combine best 38 bench press reps and the 3rd best 40 time out of all DEs at 4.6. He is extremely raw in his technique, so the Estonian figures to be at least a 2 year project, but fortunately the Bengals have the time to mold him behind one of the most talented and deepest DLs in the league.
3 of Cincinnati’s starting DL ranked in the top 15 in their positions, 2 of which ranked in the top 10, and Atkins was the best DT in football. Peko is a solid run stuffer and blocker eater, and the Bengals have plenty of depth behind these guys and love to use a deep rotation – Johnson barely cracked the top 20 in snaps and Atkins the top 10. 5 stars without question here.
LINEBACKERS: LB was a shaky spot for Cincinnati in 2012 and it started with MIKE Rey Maualuga. The Samoan was dreadful grading dead last out of 53 MLBs in coverage and wasn’t much better stopping the run at 40th. Maualuga was a FA this spring so the Bengals could have cut ties, but in one of the strangest decisions this FA Cincinnati resigned him to a 2 year deal. The only conceivable reason has to be scheme continuity. The silver lining is he can't play any worse in 2013.
Flanking him to begin the season were the same two OLBs from 2011 – Thomas Howard and Manny Lawson. However WILL Howard tore his ACL in the season opener and was lost for the year. This left Cincinnati in a real bind because Howard was the 3rd best OLB in coverage in 2011, so losing him created a gaping hole at LB. The Bengals tried 2010 UDFA Vincent Rey the following two weeks but he bombed so they plugged in 2012 UDFA Vontaze Burfit, who was a literal gold mine. He only missed 37 total snaps the rest of the season (14 games) and graded top 10 against the run and top 20 in coverage. He struggles a bit shedding blocks when rushing the passer, but he has time to learn as a 2nd year player. Even more impressive is the fact that he committed just 3 penalties despite struggling with personal fouls in at Arizona State. He also played MIKE at ASU, so he has the potential to slide into the middle in the event of an injury or Maualuga reenacting 2012.
Strong-side LB Lawson reprised his 2-down role in 2012 on a second consecutive 1 year deal and was a quite a bargain as well. He ranked top 20 against the run and top 10 rushing the passer despite costing just $2 million. He wasn’t very good in coverage, but he didn’t have to be as a 2-down rotational LB. However the 29 year old was allowed to walk this spring, replaced with James Harrison from the Steelers.
Harrison was an odd signing because he is 6 years older than Lawson (35) and has played his entire career as a 3-4 rush LB. He will be asked to make the transition to a 4-3 SAM but will likely get some snaps at DE when the Bengals want to go rush heavy. Harrison was just as bad as Lawson in coverage, so he will continue to occupy a 2-down role, but did rank 3rd best out of all 3-4 OLBs in stopping the run, so he will be a slight upgrade there. The question is whether he has enough left in the tank to be the pass rusher he once was – he ranked 20th last year after ranking in the top 10 each of the previous 4 years including top 5 from 2008-2010. Worth noting is Harrison’s injury history – he missed the opening 3 games this season after having knee surgery and has missed 8 games over the last 2 seasons after missing just 1 in the 4 prior to that – his age could be on the verge of wearing him down.
Reserve LB is going to be the tightest positional battle in Cincinnati this summer. In addition to the 3 returning reserves (Emmanuel Lamur, Vincent Rey, and Dontay Moch), the Bengals also drafted Sean Porter from Texas A&M in the 4th round, and added a long list of FA LBs. Porter can play both SAM and WILL as he was a good pass rusher at A&M but is also athletic an quick enough to play the pass. As far as the 3 reserves go, WILL Emmanuel Lemur is at the top of the group. He started rotating in on passing downs in the second half of the season and really impressed for a UDFA rookie. Former 2011 3rd rounder Dontay Moch has blazing speed off the edge (4.44) but has not been able to stay healthy with migraines and a foot injury causing him to be inactive for just about every game in his 2 years. Vincent Rey and Dan Skuta were special teams aces but Skuta bolted for SF this spring and Rey doesn’t figure to make the final roster with all the new signings, opening up 2 spots next to the 3 starters and Porter.
Fighting for those 2 rosters spots are UDFAs Jordan Campbell, Jayson DiManche, Brandon Joiner, Bruce Taylor, JK Schaffer, and 2013 FA Aaron Maybin. Maybin was a 1st rounder in 2009 but has struggled to make it as a rush LB in the NFL. He will attempt to revive his career if he can catch on behind James Harrison, but roster spots are going to be tight.
If it was possible, I would’ve given Maualuga a zero star grade for 2012 – he was that dismal. While Lawson and Burfict were average next to him, he should benefit from the leadership and work ethic Harrison will bring. Plus Burfict should continue to develop in his 2nd year. There also figures to be more depth than there was in 2012 – Lamur and Porter will make solid reserves as both can cover and if Maybin catches on he would be a serviceable backup to Harrison at SAM. If Maualuga improves this group would deserve 3 stars, but I just can’t do it with how horrific his 2012 campaign was.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: The Bengals were pretty solid at CB and FS, but had a gaping hole at SS – almost as gaping as the hole Maualuga dug while he was on the field. Taylor Mays manned the spot early in the season, but never was able to recover from a poor week 1 performance. He was decent the rest of the year mainly as a reserve. Starting in week 5 CB Nate Clements was moved to safety where he was fairly average for the remainder of the year in coverage but struggled in run support (not surprising for a corner playing safety). Cincinnati resigned and plugged in Chris Crocker who was better but only marginally – he was average in both run support and coverage. However neither of these guys is still with the team, meaning Mays is the top returning option.
To remedy this, SS Shawn Williams from Georgia was drafted in the 3rd round. Williams did not have the best measureables, but he is a heady leader who ran the entire secondary at an SEC school meaning he is quite NFL ready. If he develops quickly he should take over the starting spot from Mays. Filling out the roster are Jeromy Miles, George Iloka, and Tony Dye. Dye, an UDFA from 2012, missed the entire season with an ankle injury and missed half of his senior season at UCLA with neck and ankle injuries – he may be a roster casualty if he can’t stay healthy. Iloka, a 5th rounder from Boise in 2012, seems to be the most talented and likely to catch on as the 4th safety. Miles, another UDFA, is mainly a special teamer and may not make the final roster.
FS was another deal entirely as Reggie Nelson was one of the best in the league. While he isn’t the best in run support, he was top 5 in pass coverage. He is just 29 so he’s got a few more good years left, and he ran a 4.35 back in 2007 so he can close quickly in coverage. Iloka will likely serve as his backup.
At CB the Bengals were pretty set in 2012. Leon Hall was top 20 against the run but was one of the top cover corners in the league. He ranked 1st in snaps per target and 4th in yards allowed per snap. He is not a ballhawk, instead providing solid, dependable, consistent coverage. It is worth noting his injury history – he didn’t miss a game in his first 4 years but has missed a combined 11 over the last 2. Also, Hall shifts into the slot in the nickel package, and was the best in the league there. Despite taking the 13th most snaps out of the slot (as a #1) he ranked 1st in both snaps per target and yards allowed per snap.
Starting across from him at the beginning of the year was Clements, but he was below average in his short time at CB. Terence Newman took over in week 3 as the full time starter when Clements got moved to safety and was very solid despite being 34. Neman has always been a good run stuffer and ranked 7th in 2012, but he was also top 30 in coverage which is decent for a #2 and especially for one in his mid 30s.
It also has been a boon for Cincinnati that Adam Jones has revitalized his career as a Bengal. The 29 year old former 1st rounder has 4.4 speed and top 10 coverage skills – he could start for most teams but serves as Cincinnati’s nickel. He was top 5 in coverage and top 10 rushing the passer and routinely handled #1s and 2s on the outside while Hall rotated into the slot.
However after those 3 it gets very, very thin at CB mainly because of injuries. 2012 5th rounder Shaun Prater missed the entire season with a knee injury while 2010 3rd rounder Brandon Ghee was placed on IR for his wrist. Ghee has played just 13 games in 3 seasons with the team due to injuries. 2012 1st rounder Dre Kirkpatrick, a big physical corner, missed time throughout the year with a knee injury before winding up on IR as well late in the year.
Cincinnati goes into 2013 with the same crop of 6 CBs that ended 2012 on the roster. Hall and Jones are top 10 cover guys while Newman is a solid top 30 as well. However beyond that there is a lot of unproven talent and a lot of injury risks. Nelson is also a top 10 FS but SS is a total question mark – Mays is below average and the only other option is a rookie. This group is 5 star talent except at safety, so I have to bump them to 4.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Mike Nugent was a decent option in 2012, only missing 4 tries out of 23. He does not have the biggest leg, attempting just 6 kicks from 50+ in the last 3 years. However he has made 4 of those, so anything right at 50 he is pretty consistent with. He is also just an average option on KOs, ranking 15th in distance and 17th in percent returned.
P Kevin Huber does not have the biggest leg (15th in average distance), but he excels at placement ranking top 5 in both pinning teams inside the 20 and percent returned, therefore his net yards ranks 6th.
KRs were handled almost entirely by Brandon Tate, who was nothing but average. Assuming he even makes the roster, he may start sharing attempts as the Bengals have added 3 return weapons in RB Bernard and DBs Onterio McCalebb and Troy Stoudermire. Both McCalebb and Stoudemire are UDFAs, but McCalebb ran the fastest 40 for a RB (he’s being switched to CB) at the combine this year, and Stoudermire set the NCAA
record for career return yards while at Minnesota. Both would be great return options but they have to make the team first – Bernard is the only one assured a roster spot.
PRs were split by Tate and Jones with Jones being much more effective with his returns. Again if Tate doesn’t make the final roster either someone else (Bernard) could work in or Jones might take on an increased role.
Huber and Jones are top 10 material but Nugent and Tate are both just average. Barring a change at KR 4 stars is the max here.
SUMMARYThe Bengals started slowly in 2012 going 3-5 and it was a combined failure by the offense and defense. The defense gave up 27+ in 5 of the first 8 games , of which the Bengals won just 2. The offense scored less than 20 points in 3 of the 8 as well, of which they lost all 3. However they got things rolling following a close loss at Denver in week 9 and they rattled off 7 wins in their last 8. The biggest difference was the defense – They allowed more than 17 points just once in those 8 games and it was only 20 – incidentally this was also the only game they lost in that stretch. The offense still sputtered occasionally – while they posted 28+ in 4 of the 8 they also scored 20 or less in 3. This was true in the playoffs as well where the defense conceded just 19 points but the offense only managed 13 in their second consecutive wild card loss to the Texans.
They may start 2013 slowly as well as 4 of their first 5 opponents figure to be tough (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New England) with division rival Cleveland mixed in as well. Getting through here at 3-2 would be a success but nothing would surprise me – they could have finally turned the corner and beat an above Chicago team, a reeling Pittsburgh franchise, lowly Cleveland, and split with powerhouses GB and NE for a 4-1 record or they could equally likely lose at Cleveland and be 0-5.
However, once they get through that stretch things open up for them. Their next 4 opponents all should be average or below (BUF, DET, NYJ, MIA) and it is going to important to win at least 3 if not all 4 here to stay within striking distance of the division title after that brutal opening to the schedule. They also close with a tough 4 game stretch that includes 3 playoff teams (IND, MIN, BAL) and a road matchup with the Steelers.
Playing it ultra conservative, I’ll peg them for 2-3 in that initial stretch (win at CLE and 1 of the other 4) but then have them sweep that easy stretch in the middle to sit at 6-3. After a loss at BAL and a sweep of CLE they’ll be 7-4 at the bye with a tough finish ahead of them. Assuming they can knock off lowly SD and beat IND outside a dome, they’ll be 9-4 with 2 division games left. Figuring a season split with PIT and BAL means they’ll take both down the stretch and the MIN game figures to be winnable too so 12-4 is not out of reach. However I will stay conservative and mark them down for 11-5 with a 4-2 mark in the division.
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