BAL/DEN Preview

RAVENS OFFENSE

QB: Flacco has always been inconsistent, prior to last year’s playoffs that is, and this was the case in 2012 – he had 8 positive grades to 6 negative grades over his 16 regular season starts. He was also held to under 200 passing yards in 6 of the 15 games he played the majority of the snaps (Taylor played almost exclusively in week 17).

However once the playoffs hit he was on fire – he went for 240+ in all 4 games and tossed 11 TDs to 0 picks (he was at a 2.2-1 clip prior to the playoffs). It remains to be seen if this kind of performance will be sustainable or whether he will regress to the Flacco we are used to seeing.

RB: Rice had a down year in 2012, and it wasn’t just due to a lack of touches. While he ranked just 14th in attempts, his YPC ranked was just average (4.4, 20th). However it was after first contact that Rice really struggled, with his 2.4 average ranking 28th. This is in large part due to an OL that was very good in pass protection but collectively average as run blockers. It certainly wasn’t his FB’s fault, as Leach graded as the #1 blocking FB in 2012.

The weird part is, his backup Pierce was more effective with his carries than Rice. His 4.9 YPA ranked 9th (4.4 for Rice), and after first contact he averaged 3.5 yards, good for 3rd (Rice was 2.4). This might help explain why TC reports have Pierce garnering a more involved role in the offense this year.

One area where Rice does maintain a sizeable advantage is as a receiver out of the backfield. Rice received 1 target for about every 3 carries compared to Pierce’s 10 carries, so it’s clear who the Raven’s trust more in the flat.

Regardless, no matter how the workload is distributed, the fact remain that Baltimore returns all 3 pieces of what is one of the most talented backfields in the league.

WR: The big news here is the departure of Boldin. Boldin led the team in receptions, yards, and had the best hands on the team (3 drops in 90 catchable balls (3%). Compare this to Smith and Jones dropping 10 of a combined 105 catchable balls (10%), and it’s easy to see while he’ll be missed.

While the Ravens did sign someone to replace him, it isn’t a direct replacement. Instead, they brought in a #3 (Stokley) and bumped former #3 Jones to #2. While Stokley is a very talented slot receiver, Jones is nowhere near the possession WR Boldin was and this move has to be considered a downgrade.

Also gone are #4/5 Doss and Reed, however their absences won’t be noticed as much because of the emergence of CFA Brown, who really impressed in TC and the preseason. He is currently slotted as the #4 on the chart ahead of the returning Thompson.

With all that said, the Ravens do return their two most dynamic WRs in Smith and Jones, however Boldin’s absence will definitely be noticed. Stokely will fill in for Boldin in the slot, and while Brown has impressed, there’s just something about Smith/Jones/Stokley/Brown that doesn’t sound as threatening as Smit/Boldin/Jones/Doss. Also, something to keep an eye on as far as Flacco – he ranked 2nd fewest in dropped passes among all QBs who played at least 75% of their team’s snaps. This number is almost certainly going to rise in 2013. This will not only lower his efficiency numbers, but it will cause the Ravens to stall between the 20s more frequently.

TE: Injuries have really scalped this position. #1 Pitta is gone for the year. This was supposed to elevate the role of former #2 Dickson, but he suffered his own malady in the preseason. He is currently battling to get fit for the opener, and Baltimore better hope he does because the only other TE on roster is #3 Bajema. Pitta is a much more dynamic receiver than Hickson, so he will definitely be missed. Dickson has been a better blocker in pass protection so he does add a bit of a boost there. Bajema has been fairly inadequate in all 3 phases, so for their sake they hope he stays on the sideline as much as possible.

OL: Baltimore returns 4 of the 5 OL on what was one of the premier pass blocking units in the playoffs. After struggling most of the year, McKinnie was finally fully healthy and reinserted at LT for the Wild Card game. This allowed Oher to switch back to RT and Osemele to kick inside to guard. The difference was both immediate and incredible. The Ravens went from allowing 10 QB pressures per game in the regular season to 6 in the playoffs. They got better in every category: sacks (1.6 to 0.8 ), hits (2.7 to 1.0), and hurries (5.6 to 4.0).

Also returning is RG Yanda, who graded as the 2nd best guard in the league including top 5 grades in both run blocking and pass protection. The only new piece will be at C, due to Birk’s retirement. Birk wasn’t great in pass protection but he was the best run blocking C in the playoffs. Neither guys competing for his spot (Gradkowski and Shipley) had very good preseasons, and both should be considered a downgrade.

The Ravens have one of the best pass blocking OLs in the league but Yanda is their only good run blocker. Flacco should continue to see more of the same clean pockets he did in the playoffs, but Rice and company might have trouble finding running lanes.

SUMMARY: The Ravens return 8 of 11 starters on offense. They have one of the top backfield tandems in the league, as well as one of the best pass protecting OLs. Their success on offense will hinge on the performance of their newly expensive QB and whether or not Jones can be a functional #2. Stokley and Hickson should be adequate replacing former starters, but Jones carries the biggest burden while Flacco now has unbelievable pressure resting on his shoulders.

RAVENS DEFENSE

DL: The turnover on defense starts up front with the DL. The Ravens lost NT Kemoeatu, whose 350lb frame started 17 of 19 games last year while serving as a block eater and run stuffer in the middle. No one was brought in to replace him, so splitting the role this year will be Jones and Cody. Jones, who started next to Kemoeatu last year, is not a starting NT (only 305lbs), and if he opens the season as the starter he will likely fall into more of a rotational player on passing down. The man set to replace Kemoeatu is 2010 2nd rounder Cody. Cody, weighing in at a mammoth 360lbs, has the size for the position and, as per TC reports, apparently the light has clicked on in his 4th year.  He did not play very much in 2012, nor did he play very well, so if those reports don’t pan out, the Ravens will be hurting over the middle.

Canty was decent in limited action for the Giants at DT last year. He was signed to play the DE role Jones filled last year. Canty is also only 295lbs, so without Cody on the field the Ravens are very small on the DL. 2012 7th rounder Tyson looked very good against the run in the preseason, so he could figure into the rotation on early downs with Canty. They also have newly signed Spears and 2013 3rd rounder Williams in reserve.

Ngata is still the star of this crew. If Cody can step his game up and fill Kemoeatu’s shoes, the DL could be just as good if not better than it was last year. If he still remains ineffective and the Ravens have to roll with Jones more often than they’d like, they will be very weak stopping the run.

LB: The major turnover for Baltimore is at LB, where 3 of the 4 starters from 2012 have departed including both ILBs. Kruger, a top 5 pass rushing 3-4 OLB, is gone but an adequate replacement was signed (4-3 DE pass rushing specialist Dumervil), so there won’t be much drop off there, especially playing across from a healthy Suggs. Suggs is one of the league’s preeminent pass rushing OLBs when he is healthy.

Where they will feel the burn is at ILB where Lewis, Ellerbe, and McClain split snaps in 2012. All 3 will not start week 1 in 2013 as Lewis (retired) and Ellerbe (Miami) are not with the team and McClain is still on the PUP with the neck injury he sustained late in 2012. Baltimore did sign Smith, who should serve as an upgrade over the rapidly declining Lewis (although losing his leadership will hurt). Smith was a top 5 OLB for Jacksonville in 2011 including the top ranking in coverage before missing most of last season due to injury. Bynes is penciled in as the starter at the other ILB spot – Bynes was the #4 ILB in 2012 so this is not a good thing. 2013 2nd rounder Brown and converted OLB McClellan will likely see some time before McClain returns from the PUP.

The Ravens will be just fine with Suggs and Dumervil as edge rushers. Smith is also a very competent ILB. The only issue is the current gaping hole at the other ILB spot. Someone will have to step up and fill the void either permanently or at least until McClain is healthy.

CB: The Ravens technically lose a starting CB, but not really. 2012 #2 Williams is gone, but he was average at best most of the year. However Baltimore still technically returns 2 starters as Graham filled in for Webb after he tore his ACL. Graham was no better than Williams but he should be an adequate #2, as he was last year. Webb was a top 5 shutdown corner in 2011 and while returning to that form will be difficult in his first year off an ACL tear, he should still be an above average #1.

Where the Ravens will be lacking is depth. They still have a slot corner in Graham (he was the #3 and the main slot option until Webb’s injury) and he will likely still rotate there in the nickel, but what they don’t have is a #3 CB anymore. Williams’ departure makes Graham a starter again, but they didn’t bring in anyone to fill the void. This means 2012 #4/5 Smith and Brown get bumped up to #3/4, and this is bad, bad news. Both were terrible in coverage last year and should not be on the field at all costs. Their nickel package is going to suffer with Smith having to come on the field, and god forbid if they suffer an injury to either Webb or Graham. Unlike at LB or S where they have a new, talented draft pick waiting in the wings, they have absolutely nothing behind Webb and Graham.

S: Baltimore also loses both starters at safety. While losing Reed’s experience, leadership, and ballhawking ability will hurt, Reed has been a huge injury risk (even this summer for the Texans) and has been constantly banged up for years. Huff was signed to replace him and he should be an adequate replacement in coverage – he was forced to switch to CB midseason after the Raiders’ secondary was decimated by injury and he did fairly decently for having so little prep time on such a bad defense.

Also departed is the hard hitting SS Pollard, who was top 10 in run support. However he also was constantly picking up personal fouls – his 5 penalties ranked 2nd among all safeties. Currently penciled in as starter is 2012 #3 Ihedigbo, but it’s anyone’s guess how long that will last with 2013 1st rounder Elam waiting behind him. Elam should take over the starting role eventually as he is just too talented to sit on the bench.

SUMMARY: There are 7 new starters on this defense, which is a ridiculous amount of turnover for a SB winning team. However, it was quite obvious last year that several members of this once vaunted defense were now holding it back (we’re looking at you, Lewis and Reed). Turnover was necessary for this aging unit and they did very well in FA and the Draft, making some shrewd moves to reload. Of the 7 vacated starting positions, they signed 4 immediate starters (Canty, Smith, Dumervil, and Huff) and drafted two potential future starters as well (Brown and Elam). With Cody ready to step into a starting spot and stopgaps at ILB (Bynes) and SS (Ihedigbo), that pretty much covers everything. Webb returns from his ACL tear and Graham is an adequate #2 and slot corner.

The only real holes on this defense are its lack of depth at CB, Bynes at ILB (although Brown is eyeing his spot), and maybe at NT if Cody can’t step up and fill Kemoeatu’s role. This unit looks ready to vault ahead of where last year’s was, especially with the pressure it can generate up front.

BRONCOS OFFENSE

QB: Peyton has long been a top 5 QB. The question last year was could he be that same guy post about 18 neck surgeries. The answer was a definite yes – he ranked in the top 5 in all efficiency categories (comp %, YPA, and QB rating). He can still throw the deep ball (ranked 2nd in deep ball accuracy). And while his OL protects him very, very well (least pressured of all QBs) he still handles the blitz well ranking 7th in accuracy under pressure. And to top it off, he is still one of the best play-action QBs in the game – he ran PA the 5th most frequently and his comp % and YPA were both top 3.

And he did all this while having to deal with the 6th most drops. It’s safe to say that Peyton could be even more dangerous in 2013 as almost the entire offense returns and he was given an upgrade to his receiving corps. Exchanging Welker for Stokley only further solidifies the Broncos’ WR corps as one of the best trios in the league. And not only that, but he has one of the best pass blocking OL’s in the game. The sky is the limit for 2013.

RB: This is the only area where Denver lacks a talented option on offense. In 2012 they ran with the trio of McGahee, Moreno, and Hillman. McGahee was the starter until an injury shelved him, upon which Moreno took over the reins for the remainder of the year. Hillman served as the primary reserve, always showing flashes but never enough consistency to earn a starting role.

Well apparently he did enough because this offseason McGahee was cut due to injury concerns and Moreno currently sits 3rd on the depth chart with Hillman on top. Pushing him for carries is 2013 2nd rounder Ball, but he hasn’t done anything to take the spot from Hillman. With a bunch of mediocre options and an average-to-poor run blocking OL, Denver isn’t going to scare anyone here.

WR: As previously mentioned, with the addition of Welker Denver now boasts one of the most talented WR trios in the league. While Stokley was an above average slot option, Welker is the prototypical slot WR – he ranked 1st in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs from the slot in 2012. Thomas graded just outside the top 5 in the passing game and bolsters his profile by grading 3rd as a run blocker. This guy understands what it means to be a #1 WR in the NFL. Decker is the least talented of the 3, but that isn’t an insult by any means. He ranked top 20 in catches and yards and was #2 in TDs with 13.

Caldwell and Holliday are the only reserves on the roster, and Holliday is there purely for his return specialty. Caldwell was the 5th option last year behind the departed Willis, so he will see a major uptick in his snap count. However, there isn’t much depth here with the Broncos deciding to keep just 5 WRs to 4 TEs, 3 QBs, and 10 OL.

TE: Peyton has a long history of turning no name TEs into dependable options. He did the same last year with Dreessen, Tamme and even 7th rounder Green. Tamme is better receiver while Dreessen is a better blocker. However both have been supplanted by 2011 4th rounder Thomas, who has come out of nowhere this summer to top the depth chart. He has been marked as a sleeper by most sites, although he doesn’t really qualify as such (since when is Peyton’s #1 TE a sleeper, ever?).

OL: Peyton also has a pretty strong OL, despite the fuss being made about the C position. Tackles Clady and Franklin both rank in the top 10 as pass blockers and Clady is top 5 overall. Newly signed RG Vasquez is a top 10 pass blocker and will be an upgrade at that position, which Ramirez manned in 2012. Ramirez is relocating to C, and according to Espn he is the worst starting C in the league. However, the weak spot on the line, contrary to popular belief, is LG Beadles. Beadles is a good run blocker but he barely cracks the top 30 in pass protection. While Ramirez struggles as run blocker, he was top 10 in pass protection last year. That gives the Broncos 4 OL who rank in the top 10 in pass protection…and then there’s Beadles.

Their main issue is run blocking – Clady and Franklin are average run blockers while Vasquez is below average. Ramirez is the worst of the group, while Beadles is the best run blocker of the 5. This group will struggle to consistently open lanes in the running game.

SUMMARY: The Broncos arguably could have the best QB, WR trio, and pass blocking OL combination in the league. They were already the #2 passing unit in 2012 and with the Welker and Vasquez additions they could overtake the Falcons for the top honors. However they are still completely devoid of talent at the RB position and everyone but Beadles struggles to block the run. Good defenses will be able to render them one dimensional, which then makes them beatable. But in games where they get the run working and Peyton can start using play-action effectively…watch out. As mentioned previously, the sky appears to be the limit here for this offense.

BRONCOS DEFENSE

DL: The Broncos’ success on defense started up front with the DL. They had 2 good run stuffers in DTs Bannan and Vickerson. Reserve Unrein also held his own in run support in a group that was very stout against the run. However, Bannan is gone and replacing him is Knighton of the Jags. Knighton is not the run stuffer Bannan was (top 5), but he does bring more of a pass rushing presence, something the Broncos definitely didn’t have on the interior last year. With opposing OLs constantly shifted coverage to Miller’s side, having someone who can knife up the middle will definitely help even if he is a downgrade as a run stopper.

2013 1st rounder Williams got a long look in the preseason (most snaps on the DL and 2nd most on the defense), but it wasn’t enough to crack the starting lineup. He and Unrein will work their way in the rotation.

DE is a whole different story. Dumervil was a top 15 pass rusher while Wolfe was top 10 against the run. However Denver might be without both to open the regular season as Dumervil departed after the infamous fax incident while Wolfe suffered a spinal injury in the preseason and his status is in doubt. Ayers was the #3 last year and the new starter after Dumervil’s departure, but the other spot is totally up in the air. Denver has only 1 other DE on roster, Jackson, who played sparingly as the #4 in 2012 and wasn’t very good in either phase. They also have backup OLB Phillips listed as a DE, but not only was he terrible in 2012 for SD, I doubt Denver wants to use a converted 3-4 OLB at starting DE against the Ravens’ OL. They’ll likely roll the dice on Jackson and use a rotation involving some of their DEs to provide depth until they can find a more permanent option.

LB: Denver’s top 2 LBs return…sort of. Unless you’ve been under a rock, you know OLB Miller, the top 4-3 OLB in the game (and it’s not even close), is going to miss the first part of the season due to a suspension (I still don’t get why he gets 6 games for a drug that shouldn’t even be illegal while the Texan’s Smith gets 1 game for ripping off someone’s helmet and trying to beat them with it). Regardless, Denver is without the premier 4-3 edge rusher and best 4-3 OLB in the game. No one in the league can fill the void created by this suspension, not to mention anyone on the current roster.

Compounding the issue is the loss of MLB Brooking. No one was signed to fill this void, so WLB Woodyard, is shifting inside at least to start the season. While he is great in coverage (tops among all 4-3 OLBs), it’s never good to rely on a converted WILL for run support over the middle. Brooking was bad last year (which led to his eventually departure), but Woodyard won’t be much better in this role.

However, he will be an absolute standout given the two guys he’s slotted to open the season next to. Denver cleaned house in the LB corps, not only getting rid of Brooking but 2 reserves as well. This left just Trevathan and Irving on the roster. Now one surely wouldn’t think a team with SB aspirations like the Broncos would rely on one of those two guys as a starting LB…would they? Surely they’d sign someone to fill the void, at least for this year until they can get a more permanent solution.

Nope, the only guys Denver signed were washed up vets Phillips and Lenon, both of whom were absolutely terrible for their respective teams in 2012. Other than name value, neither bring anything to the team, which is evident by the fact that both Trevathan and Irving are penciled in to start for the opener. Seriously, guys named Trevathan and Irving will flank Woodyard to open the season.

CB: Champ Bailey has long been one of the best shutdown corners in the league and 2012 was no different where he ranked 10th overall. He is also top 10 in run support and still remains one of the best corners in the league despite his age. He will reprise his role as the #1, although maybe not to start the season as he is currently banged up and in jeopardy of missing the opener. This could be huge because there is not much depth behind the two starters.

However the #2 figures to be improved in 2012. While CFA Harris was surprisingly effective, Denver wasn’t quite ready to rely on him to be a full-time starter so they brought in reinforcements. The quality of those reinforcements is totally subjective at this point. Rodgers-Cromartie (hereby DRC) has incredible athletic ability and was a top 5 corner for Arizona in 2009. However this is about when he began developing his other nickname (Doesn’t Really Care). He has gone on to severely disappoint over the next 3 seasons with both Arizona and Philly. Is he due for a career revival/wakeup call playing next to one of the best cover corners of all time, or will he continue to not care and disappoint? The jury is still out, but one cannot argue that Denver doesn’t have a solid pair of very athletic starting corners.

Denver has some decent reserves, but none that come anywhere close to the talent of the two starters. Harris, who performed admirably after being promoted from the nickel to starter after Porter bombed will reprise his role as the nickelback and main slot option. Carter is still on the roster as the dimeback, a role in which is also was above average in. The Broncos also signed notable bust Jammer but he won’t see the field much.

S: Similar to CB, Denver has demoted one of their CFA starters from 2012. Adams will no longer starter next to stud Moore, a top 10 all around FS, as he has been demoted to a reserve. Supplanting him is a guy named Ihenacho, a CFA from 2012 who didn’t even play a snap last year. This decision is curious – other than a fairly strong preseason in which he showed good ability in run support, it’s hard to see why they would name him the starter out of nowhere.

SUMMARY: Denver only returns 6 starters on this side of the ball and only 3 of those are likely to play in the opener (Wolfe, Miller, and Bailey likely out). They will likely be starting 3 new DL, 2 new no-name LBs next to a converted WILL, and 3 new DBs. Once they get their main guys back this unit should go back to being one of the best in the league, but right now they are beyond decimated.